The Hungarian Presidency: Orban at the wheel?

 

By Drakoulis Goudis

Introduction

As of the 1st of July 2024, and for the next 6 months, Hungary is holding the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban lost no time in using his new position to meet enemies of the West, like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump while pretending to be “EU President”.

Public outrage ensued, with civilians expressing their frustration that the EU appears to be represented internationally by a far-right populist who vocally despises Western liberal values, admires authoritarian leaders and would happily hand Ukraine to Putin given the chance.

 

Council of the European Union

The Council of the European Union, informally known as the Council of Ministers, is one of two legislative bodies which, together with the European Parliament, serves to amend and approve or veto the proposals of the European Commission (the EU’s executive body). It is composed of representatives of each EU member state at ministerial level, grouped by policy area (e.g. when discussing agricultural policy, the Council is formed by the 27 national ministers whose portfolio includes agriculture). The Council of the EU is led by a six-month rotating presidency.

It should not be confused with the European Council, composed of the heads of state or of government of the EU member states, whose responsibility is to define the EU’s general political directions and priorities. The European Council is led by a full-time president. The outgoing President is Charles Michel, and he will be succeeded by Antonio Costa.

What does the rotating Presidency entail?

The role of the Presidency is organizing the work of the Council, such as summoning the Council for meetings, directing the work of committees and working groups, setting the agenda of the Council and mediating among members. This applies to all the Council’s configurations (e.g. agriculture, justice) except the Foreign Affairs Council, which is chaired by the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The outgoing High Representative is Josep Borrell, and he will be succeeded by Kaja Kallas.

Viktor Orban is not an “EU President” and has zero authority to speak on behalf of the EU on foreign policy matters. His role as Council of the EU President is mostly administrative. Foreign Policy is the prerogative of the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission, and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

 

 

Why isn’t that public knowledge?

• Confusing Names: Council of the European Union and European Council are too similar and cause unnecessary confusion. Furthermore, the term President for the head of government chairing the Council meetings is misleading, since the role is more akin to Chairman or Speaker of a legislative body. Names matter in public perception, and the term President creates the misconception of authority that this position does not have.
• National Media: most media do a terrible job reporting EU affairs, either due to ignorance, or to generate sensationalist clickbait headlines. Sometimes it is done on purpose, because national governments benefit from presenting the EU as a confusing bureaucratic maze.
• Member States: we have the recent example of Emmanuel Macron pretending to be “EU President” and everyone playing along, because it didn’t cause any problems. But when you set the precedent, it’s difficult to change the public opinion who will rightfully assume that since Macron was “EU President” when France was holding the rotating presidency, Orban is now that it’s Hungary’s turn. Macron obviously wasn’t, and neither is Orban.

Why do Orban’s actions matter?

We established that Orban has no authority to speak on behalf of the EU on foreign policy matters, and whatever he tells Putin and Trump represents Hungary’s positions, not the EU’s. But given that a lot of people are unaware of that due to the factors mentioned above and because politics is first and foremost PR, the images of Orban’s handshakes with dictators, war criminals and convicted felons using the logo of the Council’s Presidency are damaging to the EU’s prestige and public perception. Russian propaganda exploited Orban’s visit, which perfectly matched Putin’s narrative regarding the war in Ukraine, and Orban did not contradict Vladimir Putin when he announced that he represented the EU during their meeting. 

Even if this wasn’t the case, and everyone was fully informed that Orban’s trips are PR stunts, it would still have been a problem: a member state is abusing its institutional position to push forward a personal/national agenda contrary to the EU’s policies. Orban believes that the turning point in the demise of institutions is when they become a laughingstock. He wants to show to the world that there are no consequences for repeatedly ignoring EU rules and making a mockery of the Treaties. This invites ridicule for the EU—internally and externally—by showing it is incapable of maintaining unity and that a rogue member state can act as it pleases without suffering any consequences. 

Why doesn’t the EU act?

The very problematic modus operandi of the EU when dealing with rogue governments has been waiting them out. Eventually, they will lose national elections and the problem will resolve itself. This logic is rooted in fear: member states are afraid that an EU which carries a big stick to enforce its rules over the member states will lead to more Brexits and fertilize the soil for nationalists to present themselves as the resistance to an imaginary Brussels oppression.

Viktor Orban’s Fidesz rules Hungary since 2010 and has turned the country into an autocracy. You cannot wait him out because there is no out. Hungary is not a full democracy anymore, Orban will reign for as long as he wants. He turned state TV into a propaganda mouthpiece, took over the judicial system, persecuted independent media, went after higher education institutions, passed homophobic laws, and changed the electoral system to his party’s benefit.

Orban has proven multiple times that he doesn’t care about the Treaties, the European Court of Justice verdicts or the EU laws. He routinely and publicly operates under the “what are you going to do about it?” principle, challenging the EU to punish his actions, and the EU painfully fails every time. He cares about funding, and the EU has launched infringement procedures and subsequently frozen Hungary’s funds several times over the years, but as soon as a unanimous decision is needed, he uses his veto to blackmail the EU.  His abuse of the rotational Council presidency is just another episode in his long-standing contempt of the EU and exploitation of the absence of consequences for his actions.

There is also a general lack of spine often exhibited by European leaders, who put party interests and financial ties above rule of law:  EPP were dragging their feet for years before they even entertained the thought of expelling Fidesz, not wanting to lose the votes Orban brought to their party in both legislative chambers, or harm the lucrative businesses the Bavarian EPP party CSU was doing with the Hungarian government.

 

What can be done?

Contrary to popular belief, the EU has the tools to strip rogue members of their power and prove that actions have consequences. It just chooses not to use them.

Orban’s favorite negotiating weapon, the veto threat, can be removed by suspending Hungary’s voting rights in the Council of EU and the European Council. The European Parliament launched the Article 7 of the Amsterdam Treaty procedure against Hungary 6 years ago. Its conclusion requires the steps shown in the right column of the graph.

His latest stunt, abusing the role of the Council’s rotating presidency, can also be punished very easily if there is political will: Hungary’s presidency can be cut short by bringing forward Poland’s presidency from January 2025 to September 2024. The president of the European Council can file a motion to change the calendar of the rotating presidency and then the European Council members can change the starting date of Poland’s presidency to September through a qualified majority vote.

Viktor Orban has been undermining EU values for way too long, and it’s about time that EU leaders show actual leadership and use the available tools to rein him in.