By Clara Ehrhardt

16/10/2026 

As the AFD consolidates its electoral influence and the Left returns to the centre of Berlin’s political negotiations, Friedrich Merz struggles to maintain a coherent governing coalition. At a time when Russia is actively challenging Europe’s security architecture, the question is no longer merely whether Germany can govern itself, but whether it can afford the consequences of failing to do so.

Europe is confronting a geopolitical reality that leaves increasingly little room for political complacency. Russia’s war against Ukraine has entered its fourth year and Europe is being forced to reconsider assumptions about strategic autonomy and the reliability of its transatlantic partnerships.

Meanwhile, in Germany, political attention is once again consumed by the contradictions of its own party system. 

In Saxony-Anhalt, a candidate from the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has been elected president of the state parliament, amid allegations that Christian Democratic legislators helped secure his victory. In Berlin, the Left Party’s electoral success has been overshadowed by controversies surrounding its political environment and disputes over antisemitism, even as negotiations with the Social Democrats and Greens move forward.

These are not identical developments, nor should they be presented as such. Yet together, they expose a troubling characteristic of contemporary German politics: an increasingly fragmented political landscape in which the capacity to secure electoral representation appears to be diverging from the capacity to produce stable, credible and effective government.

 

Saxony-Anhalt and the Firewall

On October 6th, Tobias Rausch was elected with 48 votes, exceeding the combined parliamentary strength of the AfD and Sara Wagenknecht Alliance by four. Because the ballot was secret, the identity of those responsible for the additional votes remains unknown.

Nevertheless, the possibility that CDU legislators supported Rausch has provoked a political controversy extending far beyond Magdeburg. For Friedrich Merz, whose party continues to insist upon a categorical rejection of cooperation with the AfD, the episode raises uncomfortable questions about the practical credibility of that commitment.

The Brandmauer, Germany’s political firewall against the far right, has become one of the defining principles of the Christian Democratic contemporary identity. A political boundary that exists principally in speeches, while becoming negotiable in parliamentary practice, risks losing precisely the credibility it was designed to establish.

The AfD’s electoral legitimacy cannot simply be dismissed because its political positions are controversial. Equally, electoral legitimacy does not create an unconditional entitlement to political cooperation or institutional office. The challenge for the CDU is to articulate a convincing response to both realities. Merely insisting that cooperation is unacceptable, without addressing the political circumstances that make it increasingly tempting for some actors, is unlikely to resolve the underlying contradiction. Gradually allowing the AfD greater political influence without openly addressing the implications - like weakening the CDU’s credibility and gradually eroding the political boundaries that have long kept the AfD out of government - would be far from a neutral decision. It would represent a consequential change in the way established parties define the boundaries of acceptable political cooperation.

 

Berlin: The Limits of Electoral Victory

The success of the Left Party in Germany’s capital with roughly 25% in the September state election, represented a substantial reconfiguration of Berlin’s political balance. Yet its position as the strongest electoral force did not automatically resolve the political and ideological disagreements separating it from potential coalition partners.

Controversy surrounding the presence of Issa Remmo, a figure associated with Berlin's Remmo criminal milieu, at a Left Party election celebration attracted considerable public attention. Separate scrutiny of reported contacts between Left Party politician Ferat Koçak and a member of the Remmo family further intensified the debate. Attendance at a political celebration does not, by itself, establish institutional complicity or improper political cooperation. Nor can allegations concerning individual relationships be treated as evidence of a broader organisational connection without substantiation. 

Moreover, disagreements over antisemitism and the handling of controversial positions within the Left Party have complicated its relationship with potential coalition partners. The issue is not merely one of political image, but concerns the extent to which parties seeking to exercise public authority can establish a credible and mutually accepted framework of political responsibility.

Against this backdrop, the announcement that the SPD, Greens and Left have agreed to proceed towards formal exploratory talks is particularly revealing. The parties have reportedly reached an understanding on procedures for addressing antisemitic incidents, thereby removing an immediate obstacle to negotiations.

Though winning an election establishes a democratic mandate for representation, it does not automatically settle the question of coalition compatibility or the political judgement required to govern.

The Left Party and the AfD differ fundamentally in their political traditions, programmatic commitments and relationship to Germany's constitutional order. Treating their respective electoral successes as interchangeable manifestations of extremism would obscure more than it explains. What connects the two cases is not ideological equivalence, but the increasingly contested process through which electoral mandates are translated into governing arrangements.

In both instances, parliamentary arithmetic proves insufficient to determine political outcomes. Questions of legitimacy, credibility and coalition compatibility intervene between the expression of electoral preferences and the exercise of executive authority. The result is a political environment in which winning elections and constructing governments have become increasingly distinct challenges.

 

Domestic Fragmentation Becomes a European Liability

There is, of course, nothing particularly new about political disagreements in Germany. Coalition negotiations have always involved uncomfortable compromises and parties have never been especially eager to abandon their principles for the sake of parliamentary arithmetic. What is different today is the political landscape in which these negotiations take place and perhaps more importantly, the circumstances beyond Germany’s borders.

Friedrich Merz finds himself now in a rather unenviable position. His party is struggling to maintain a credible distance from the AfD, while his government depends on cooperation with the Social Democratic Partners whose political priorities often differ substantially from his own. Meanwhile, the traditional parties are losing their ability to determine who gets to participate in government and on what terms.

One could dismiss this as the inevitable consequence of a changing electorate. And to some extent, it is. But the question is whether Germany’s political establishment has understood just how much is at stake beyond the next election. 

Russia’s war against Ukraine has made one thing painfully clear: Europe’s security can no longer be taken for granted. The continent needs to strengthen its defence capabilities and reduce strategic dependencies. Russia certainly has no reason to complain when European governments struggle to agree on common priorities. Moscow does not have to create every political division to benefit from it.

None of this means that Germany needs less political disagreement. It needs politicians capable of disagreeing without losing the ability to act together. Merz’s coalition may survive its current difficulties and Berlin’s prospective left-wing government may prove perfectly capable of governing. But neither outcome would settle the larger question: Can Germany still produce the kind of political leadership that Europe's present circumstances demand?