An Exclusive Club: Navigating Western Balkan Accession to the EU

By Jeremy Schaefer

28/03/2025

In November of 2024, the roof of a newly renovated train station in Serbia’s second-largest city, Novi Sad, collapsed, killing 15 people and critically injuring two more. Since then, the country has been grappling with massive demonstrations against the country’s instability, its corruption, and its president, Mr. Aleksandar Vucic. Vucic has been in power since 2014, first as Prime Minister and since 2017, as President. 

The protestors, which have overwhelmingly been students, are demanding answers, massive institutional changes, and justice. The protests have not slowed since November, either. On Saturday, March 15th, the streets of Belgrade saw over 325,000 attendees in the “15th for 15” protests, the largest demonstration in the country’s history. Protestors have expressed their outrage with Mr. Vucic’s lack of accountability, the lack of prosecution relating to the deaths, and his claims that protests are part of a Western-backed “revolution” against the existing Serbian government. The students also argue that the country has succumbed to rampant corruption and cronyism. 

For months, the European Union faced growing calls to respond to the protests in Serbia; however, it remained relatively quiet. That is, however, until this week when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that she would not cancel her meeting with President Vucic on March 25th in Brussels despite numerous Members of the European Parliament calling on her to do so. Following the meeting, von der Leyen wrote on X that Serbia must, “deliver on EU reforms, in particular to take decisive steps towards media freedom, the fight against corruption and the electoral reform.” 

Six countries in the Western Balkans, including Serbia, have all publicly expressed their desires to join the European Union. Of the other five – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, and North Macedonia – all but one of these countries has been granted candidate status by the EU: Kosovo. Kosovo remains a potential candidate due to complications with its recognition as an independent state, particularly from five current member states: Spain, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, and Cyprus. 

Seeking to be the EU’s next “Big Boom” accession, as was last seen in 2004 with the approval of 10 new countries, the Western Balkan states are part of a unique path for membership: the Stabilization and Association Process (SAP). SAP’s ultimate goal is to particularly stabilize these six states politically and economically, eventually allowing for a smoother transition into the European Union. To do so, however, the EU will provide ample financial assistance, allow easier access to EU markets, and promote cooperation amongst these countries. In doing so, the EU hopes to not only decrease regional tensions and eradicate political instability and corruption, but also to promote democratic norms, human rights, and rule of law. 

The journey to Western Balkan accession has been ongoing since 2000, when SAP was enacted. Since then, the five states that received candidate status did so in the following years: North Macedonia in 2005, Montenegro in 2010, Serbia in 2012, Albania in 2014, and Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2022. Though negotiations have been ongoing for over a decade for some of these countries, progress is slowly being made – especially in terms of economic advancement and opportunity. 

With that being said, however, substantial setbacks have occurred across the candidate states in the Western Balkans such as political unrest, ongoing interstate tensions, democratic backsliding, and inadequate infrastructure. To combat these issues, and many others found in the region, the European Commission then adopted “The Growth Plan for the Western Balkans” in November of 2023. Similarly to the Stabilization and Association Process of 2000, the Growth Plan intends to integrate the partners of the Western Balkans into the EU’s single market, to advance regional cooperation (particularly economically), to deepen reforms more aligned with the EU’s standards, and to increase funding to the region in hopes of accelerating the socio-economic convergence of the states with the rest of the EU. 

Furthermore, the Growth Plan will drastically accelerate the stability and expansion of the Western Balkan economies; this will, again, incentivize the partners to prepare for EU membership more efficiently. Per the Commission’s study, the Western Balkan states’ GDP per capitas, in terms of purchasing power parity relative to the EU, have remained relatively stable. Nonetheless, the European Union projects that the Growth Plan could double the size of their economies within the next decade. Though too early to assess this projection, it goes without saying that these six economies will soon be flooded with additional financial support from Brussels.

Source: European Commission’s “New growth plan for the Western Balkans”

Despite economic growth and increasing convergence, major setbacks persist in the region. As is currently being witnessed internationally in Serbia, political corruption and weakening democratic institutions are rather widespread in some of these states.  

As developments unfold this week in both Brussels and Belgrade regarding EU-Serbia relations, it is certain that any potential progress regarding the country’s accession will yet again be delayed. This uncertainty appears to be mirrored for all Western Balkan candidates as of now. A tactful yet impactful balance must be maintained between the European Union and the Western Balkan states to mitigate regional instability, foster democracy, and combat political corruption, all of which are essential prerequisites for advancing accession negotiations to one of the most exclusive and prestigious international organizations in the world. 

Sources:

Ahmatovic, Sejla: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-serbia-aleksandar-vucic-europe-letter-mep-antonio-costa/

Chastand, Jean-Baptiste. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/03/16/belgrade-s-historic-day-of-anger-hundreds-of-thousands-of-serbians-protest-for-laws-and-justice-that-work_6739206_4.html

De Launey, Guy.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2g8v32q30o

European Commission, “2023 Communication new Growth Plan for the Western Balkans.” https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/2023-communication-new-growth-plan-western-balkans_en

European Commission, “Growth Plan for the Western Balkans.” https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/growth-plan-western-balkans_en

European Union, “EU Enlargement.” https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/eu-enlargement_en

Ivković, Aleksandar. https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2025/03/14/serbia-prepares-for-a-historic-protest-on-saturday-fears-rise-about-government-provoked-violence/

Serbian Protests: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/1/thousands-protest-in-serbia-to-honour-railway-station-disaster-victims