Emerson Katz and Thomas Campello

16/05/2025

Poland and Romania stand at critical junctures as they enter their respective 2025 presidential elections–contests that carry far-reaching implications for their political trajectory in Europe. These elections function not merely as national referendums. They also reflect deeper structural tensions: between liberal institutional reform and conservative resistance; between alignment with the European Union and the appeal of nationalist sovereignty; and ultimately between a Western-oriented future within the EU and growing Russian influence and interference in their domestic policies. As Polish and Romanians prepare to vote, the outcomes will determine not only the region’s political configuration but also the future of the European democratic architecture. 

Poland: A Vote for Institutional Balance

Poland’s 2025 presidential election, scheduled for May 18, will determine the institutional balance of power for the remainder of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government. With President Andrzej Duda’s second term ending in August and no possibility of reelection, the outcome will decide whether the presidency continues as a veto point or becomes a facilitator of liberal reform.

Leading the race is Rafał Trzaskowski, the acting mayor of Warsaw and candidate for the pro-European Civic Coalition (KO). Trzaskowski, who narrowly lost to Duda in the 2020 runoff, has returned with a recalibrated platform that maintains liberal commitments to judicial independence, reproductive rights, and EU integration, while strategically softening rhetoric on immigration and national security. Such a recalibration is designed to attract centrist and undecided voters, particularly outside Poland’s urban centers.

Opposing him is Karol Nawrocki, a political outsider nominated by the Law and Justice (PiS) party. A conservative historian best known for heading the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), Nawrocki has pledged to preserve the legacy of PiS’s judicial centralization and cultural nationalism. Yet his candidacy has been tainted by scandal: media reports allege that he acquired an apartment from an elderly pensioner under false pretenses. Although he transferred the property to a charity, the episode has undermined public trust and triggered sharp criticism across the political spectrum. 

While other candidates, such as far-right libertarian Slawomir Mentzen and centrist Szymon Holownia, have influenced the discourse, current polling suggests the contest is narrowing to a head-to-head matchup between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. If no candidate secures an outright majority in Sunday’s vote, a runoff will be held on June 1, which based on the current polls and precedents from past elections, seems to be the most likely scenario. 

Romania: A Runoff of Uncertainty

Following a cancelled first round of the election in November 2024 due to Russian interference,  large-scale disinformation campaigns on social media and a highly divided electorate, Romania finally prepares for the second round of the scrutiny after a dramatic vote that took place on May 4. This Sunday’s runoff has been labelled as a ‘compass choice’ with only two directions: East and West. George Simion, the leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), will compete with Nicoșor Dan, the mayor of Bucharest running as an independent candidate who is supported by centrist and liberal parties. In the first round, Simion secured 40 percent of the vote, while Dan captured 20 percent. 

Simion’s platform is rooted in nationalism, with a pronounced opposition to EU integration and pro-Russian sentiment, attracting support from Romania’s rural electorate and its diaspora, as well as right-wing populist groups. In the opposite camp, Dan supports Romania’s European alignment, emphasizing judicial reform, anti-corruption efforts, and economic cooperation with the EU, drawing backing from urban voters and younger generations.

Interestingly, past presidential elections in Romania have substantiated an unexpected pattern: the first-round frontrunner has often lost in the second round, as cross-party realignment significantly changes the final electoral landscape. This fuels speculation that Dan may still have a viable path to victory, despite the votes gap between his performance and Simion’s from the first round. Nonetheless, predictions are difficult to be made at this point, indicating only one certainty: we can expect a tightly contested race with significant implications for Romania’s future political orientation.

Controversies and Electoral Conditions

Both elections have been clouded by controversies and allegations of electoral interference. In Poland, the shadow of judicial reforms that critics argue undermine the independence of the judiciary and media freedom hangs over the electoral process. Misinformation campaigns and accusations of political corruption have intensified as the election approaches, contributing to a climate of distrust among voters. Such an atmosphere has been exacerbated by concerns over the legitimacy of the election process itself, particularly following accusations that previous political interference and administrative decisions may have skewed the playing field in favor of PiS.

In Romania, the constitutional court ruled to annul the first election results following the release of declassified intelligence documents detailing an alleged Russian influence operation. The documents revealed coordinated cyberattacks targeting the electoral IT infrastructure and a large-scale disinformation campaign on social media, leveraging Calin Georgescu’s influence, a pro-Russian extremist candidate who eventually was banned from running again. More recently, a lower district court’s decision contradicted the constitutional court’s ruling, introducing significant uncertainty into an already volatile political environment. Critics argue that the lower court judge acted to deliberately inflame tensions, further disrupting electoral stability and public trust.

A Referendum On Europe’s Future 

The presidential elections in Poland and Romania are more than national scrutinies: they are referendums on the direction of European democracy at a time of mounting internal and external pressures. In Poland, the outcome will determine whether liberal institutional reforms unde Tusk’s Civic Coalition can proceed or if the presidency remains a check against pro-European governance in the hands of PiS. In Romania, voters face a stark choice between continuing on the European path and turning toward a nationalist, populist trajectory under AUR.

These elections will not only shape domestic policies and institutional dynamics but also send powerful signals about the resilience of democratic norms in the face of authoritarian drift, disinformation, and geopolitical interference. But beyond institutions and ideologies, these choices to be made reflect the hopes, fears, and frustrations of ordinary citizens. As both countries stand at pivotal crossroads, the decisions made by the people of Poland and Romania will shape not only their national paths but also the future of the European project. 

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